Brahim Oumansour : L’Algérie entre opportunités et défis

Brahim Oumansour is an associate researcher and director of the Maghreb Observatory at IRIS. He answers Pascal Boniface’s questions on the occasion of the publication of his book L’Algérie, un rebond diplomatique (Algeria, a diplomatic rebound) by Eyrolles publishing house.

The global energy crisis that increases hydrocarbon prices is a boon for Algeria, but it can also be a trap if it leads to immobilism…

Algeria is one of the countries that has greatly benefited from the global energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia. The tenth largest gas producer in the world, Algeria is courted by Europe, which wants to reduce its energy dependence on Russian gas. Several contracts have been signed between the oil group Sonatrach and the Italian Eni, the French Total, or the American Occidental Petroleum, with the aim of increasing gas production and supplying Europe, notably through the Transmed gas pipeline that transports Algerian gas to Italy.

Before the crisis, Algeria was on the brink of a major financial crisis caused by the fall in oil prices since 2014, aggravated by the political crisis caused by the Hirak (protests) and the fall of Bouteflika, and by the Covid-19 pandemic. Thanks to the rise in oil prices, the Algerian state was able to revitalize its economy and cushion the impact of rising inflation of basic products. Foreign exchange reserves have almost doubled, from about $45 billion in 2021 to $85 billion in 2023. However, there may be fears that this improvement in energy prices will discourage Algerian leaders from pursuing the plan to diversify the economy, maintaining the country’s strong dependence on hydrocarbons, which represent 97% of exports and more than 60% of Algeria’s fiscal revenue. Algerian leaders should learn from the cyclical crises related to the rentier economy.

You deplore the low level of digitization of the Algerian economy…

The Internet has radically transformed the global economy. It has revolutionized our way of communicating, of consuming, and of working. In 2021, mobile technologies and services generated an added value of 5% of global GDP. At a time when Algeria is seeking to diversify its economy to reduce its problematic dependence on hydrocarbons, digital economy could be an invaluable lever. The integration of digital technologies into the economy (digital payment, online commerce) could lead to an increase in GDP per capita of over 40%, according to a World Bank report on the Middle East and North Africa. The country, certainly, has a significant presence of mobile telephony (106%) and an internet penetration rate of 70%, allowing for the emergence of about 5000 startups. But there is a significant delay in terms of integrating digital technologies into the country’s economy, and internet speed remains too low to meet such an ambition. For Algeria, missing the digital revolution would further exclude it from the global economic system and deprive it of a real opportunity for development.

In 1974, Abdelaziz Bouteflika declared that “the relations between France and Algeria can be good or bad, they cannot be banal”. Is this still the case?

Algeria maintains a unique relationship with France, imposed by more than a century of colonization that ended with a very violent war of independence, characterized by multiple fratricides. The colonial memory has always made relations between the two countries complicated and passionate. In Algeria, colonial memory has long played a role in political legitimization. Historical legitimacy – participation in the war of independence – has replaced democratic legitimacy. In France, this memory remains vivid and sensitive due to the cohabitation of pieds-noirs (French people who lived in Algeria during the period of French colonization), the nostalgics of “France-Algeria”, Algerian emigrants in France, and their respective descendants. This creates an inextricable overlap between domestic and foreign policy when it comes to Franco-Algerian relations. Geographic proximity also poses common challenges that make cooperation between the two countries inevitable: migration issues, terrorist threats, etc. It is enough to observe the volatility of relations between Algiers and Paris in the last three years to understand the complexity of relations between the two countries. From September 2021 to February 2023, Algiers recalled its ambassador to Paris twice, following diplomatic incidents, separated by President Macron’s official visit in August 2022 and the visit of the French ministerial delegation in October.

In March 2023, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune declared that the relations between Algeria and Morocco had reached “a point of no return”. Do you share this feeling?

The Algerian president’s statement comes in a particular context marked by the deterioration of relations between Algeria and Morocco, which culminated in Algeria’s decision to sever diplomatic relations with its neighbor in August 2021. The escalation was first sparked by renewed hostilities between Moroccan forces and the Polisario Front, supported by Algeria, in reaction to the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, unilaterally decided by US President Donald Trump, at the end of 2020, in exchange for the normalization of relations with Israel. The escalation was accelerated by a series of events that occurred during 2021, not to mention the Pegasus spyware scandal and the statement by the Moroccan representative at the UN on the right to self-determination of Kabylie. It is true that Israel’s entry into the Maghreb game is a turning point in the historic rivalry between Algeria and Morocco. It is important to recall that the normalization was followed by strengthened partnerships with the Israeli state. Algeria perceives Israel’s arrival at its borders as a threat, especially since Algeria does not officially recognize the Israeli state in support of the Palestinian cause.

It is therefore difficult today to believe in a short-term easing of tensions, especially as the shock caused by the brutal war led by the Israeli army in Gaza has a negative impact on the Maghreb and risks further exacerbating Algerian-Moroccan relations. However, a détente in the medium or long term between the two neighbors cannot be ruled out. It is worth recalling that Algeria and Morocco have already experienced more serious crises in the past, which resulted in clashes between the two armies in 1962 and 1976, triggered respectively by the territorial dispute between the two countries and the conflict in Western Sahara. However, this did not prevent reconciliation during the 1980s, even if the détente did not last long. There is a shared awareness on both sides of the border of the detrimental consequences of this rivalry, both economically and diplomatically, and on a security level. But the future of relations between the two pivotal Maghreb countries will also depend on the regional geopolitical evolution.