According to AI experts, there is a universe in which this new technology will solve all our problems, and another where it will end the existence of the human species.
Throughout the year 2023, there have been speculations oscillating between these two scenarios, and it is likely that 2024 will continue along the same lines. After all, it has been nearly a decade since “celebrities” like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking suggested that “artificial intelligence could end humanity.” The question is whether we are really closer to that today.
In a post published last April, computer scientists Scott Aaronson and Boaz Barak, from the University of Texas and Harvard University, reduced the futuristic scenarios to just five – and if one was the classic dystopia in which humanity no longer has a place, another scenario was one where AI progress… simply stagnated.
Indeed, this is a possibility that may not be talked about often enough, as summarized by New Scientist in December. “The march of AI could be halted by its voracious demand for resources.” For example, one could imagine that the amount of electricity and water required to operate and cool the quantity of computer servers needed “could lead to a moratorium on the development” of AI. Or, “we could run out of data to train future models,” which would mean that the technology would never reach the level necessary to fulfill all its promises.
Between the scenario of destruction and that of stagnation, remains that of utopia. This is the “Futurama” scenario of Barak and Aaronson, in which the civilization of tomorrow differs considerably from ours, but in a positive sense. “AI is used to reduce poverty and ensure that a greater portion of humanity has access to food, health care, education, and economic opportunities. There may be problems caused by human misdeeds or negligence, but the inhabitants of this planet would generally be happier with their lot.” We may see more clearly at the end of 2024…
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