Le nucléaire face à la concurrence des énergies renouvelables et de nouvelles technologies

Cependant, le consultant britannique insiste sur le fait que les centrales nucléaires, contrairement aux éoliennes et aux panneaux photovoltaïques, peuvent produire de l’électricité 24 heures sur 24, même s’il n’y a pas de vent et pas de soleil. Selon lui, il ne faut donc pas comparer les coûts élevés du nucléaire avec ceux de l’éolien et du photovoltaïque.

Selon Woodmac, les vrais concurrents du nucléaire sont la géothermie, les centrales à hydrogène (bleu et vert), les centrales à gaz accompagnées d’un dispositif de stockage du CO2 et les systèmes de stockage à long terme de l’électricité. Toutes ces technologies sont capables de fournir une électricité décarbonée même s’il n’y a pas de vent et de soleil. Et pour s’imposer face à elles, le nucléaire devra baisser ses coûts, estime Woodmac. “À l’heure actuelle, le nucléaire n’est qu’une technologie parmi d’autres fournissant une énergie décarbonée de façon non intermittente“, insiste le consultant. Selon lui, il sera nécessaire de soutenir la filière nucléaire pour l’aider à se développer. À la fois en lui octroyant des subventions, mais aussi en harmonisant les règles internationales de sécurité et en facilitant l’obtention de permis.

Net regain for nuclear power worldwide: which countries are the most active?

Is nuclear power too slow to deploy?

On the other hand, Matt Robinson, Head of Strategic Services at the American consulting firm PSC, believes that the competitors of nuclear power should deploy much more quickly than it does, by 2035-2040. Indeed, given the urgency to reduce our CO2 emissions, rapidly deployable technologies have a serious advantage, he believes. “The deployment speed of low-carbon technologies is a crucial factor to consider”, supports Matt Robinson. According to him, this obligation to go quickly could favor hydrogen plants, which are faster to install than new nuclear power plants. “Turbines, compatible with both gas and hydrogen, are already being deployed in the market at the moment” says Matt Robinson. And it is predicted that these turbines will work exclusively with hydrogen by 2030.” However, in the longer term (by 2050), the consultant believes that nuclear power could play a more important role. Particularly in decarbonizing the last 20% of electricity production.

Ugo Salerno, CEO of the Italian engineering company RINA, is more positive about nuclear power. “Nuclear power will be a cornerstone of our energy mix”, he explains. “While alternative technologies are very promising, nuclear power will remain essential.” For example, he points out that a gas plant accompanied by a CO2 storage device has a larger environmental impact than a nuclear power plant.

Finally, Damien Ernst, professor at ULiège, believes that several aforementioned technologies pose a real threat to nuclear power. “We will witness the development of energy hubs around the world, where electricity production costs will be very low”, he explains. “I am thinking of very sunny or windy places where wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can produce renewable electricity at very low costs.” With this cheap electricity, it would be possible to produce green hydrogen at a competitive price, according to Damien Ernst. He also believes that it would be possible to combine this green hydrogen with carbon captured from the air to produce relatively inexpensive synthetic methane.

However, according to Damien Ernst, power plants running on synthetic methane or hydrogen are serious competitors for nuclear power. In short, the competition will be tough.

It should be noted that the vast majority of experts consulted believe that wind power and photovoltaic will dominate the green growth. The battle will be fought between these two technologies.

Finally, it is worth noting that building new nuclear power plants has become vital for the nuclear industry. According to Woodmac, about 75% of the current fleet was installed between 1970 and 1990.

Marie-Christine Marghem discusses nuclear power in Belgium: “We will lack electricity by 2027.”