Victor Wembanyama, the highly anticipated N°1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft, will find out about his future on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning (around 2:30am). It all comes down to the famous “Draft Lottery”, a very unique ceremony explained below.
Where will Victor Wembanyama play next season? For several months now, there has been no doubt that the new French basketball phenomenon will be selected in the first position on June 22nd during the draft, the traditional ceremony where NBA franchises take turns selecting the best young players on the planet. But his future destination is still a mystery.
The suspense will be lifted on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning (around 2:30am) during a grand lottery. This system was put in place in 1985 to prevent the season from being shortened by a race to the last place. Each year, the worst franchises are each given a probability of obtaining the first draft pick based on their ranking. Since 2019, the three worst teams in the regular season each have a 14% chance of winning the jackpot. Prior to this, the last team in the regular season had a 25% chance of getting the first pick, the second-to-last had a 19.9% chance, and the third-to-last had a 15.6% chance. These significant differences favored the “reservoir”, the famous race to the last place.
In the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, the 14 franchises who failed to qualify for the playoffs will therefore follow closely the 38th lottery in history. With disparate chances (14% for San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, and Detroit Pistons; 0.5% for New Orleans Pelicans) but a common dream: to obtain the first pick and the opportunity to draft Wembanyama.
The lottery’s principle is as follows: before the ceremony, the 14 franchises are assigned a certain number of four-digit combinations, with more or fewer combinations depending on their chances of having the first pick (140 combinations for the top three, 5 combinations for the last team). Then, ping pong balls numbered from 1 to 14 are placed in a drum that rotates for 20 seconds. After these 20 seconds, a ball comes out of the drum. The process is repeated until a four-digit combination is obtained. The team with this famous combination wins the jackpot. And sees its future very likely being turned upside down.
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